Unemployment and inflation in developing nations: Implications on poverty rate in Nigeria: 1990 -2021

The study examined unemployment and inflation in developing nations: implication on poverty rate in Nigeria:1990 -2021using secondary time series data which cuts across 32years spanning from 1990 to 2021. Research data originates from WDI and UNDP sources providing information about POVINDEX, UNER, INFR, and GDP. The Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) Unit Root test revealed that all variables exhibit mixed integration orders that includes first and zero levels (I(1) and I(0)). The appropriate approach for analyzing cointegration in such cases uses the ARDL bound test for cointegration. The assessment of cointegration showed that the selected variables demonstrate a permanent association throughout time. The results show that the F statistic value of 3.715589 exceeds all lower and upper critical levels which indicates the variables demonstrate a long-term statistical relation. The study confirms negative significance for error correction elements through cointEq(-1) which comes out to -0.992168. The estimated model reveals a 99.21% level of self-adjustment through the ECM results. ARDL techniques produced estimated results indicating that unemployment rate along with inflation rate and gross domestic product growth rate negatively affected poverty rate in Nigeria during the long term period. The poverty rate in Nigeria experienced positive and significant relationships with the unemployment rate and gross domestic product growth rate while showing negative and significant associations with inflation rate in the short term as revealed by empirical evidence.The study thus recommends that the government should develop and execute comprehensive employment generation programs to address high unemployment rates and alleviate poverty among vulnerable populations as seek to improve and sustain increased gross domestic growth rate in Nigeria.