Unmasking The Dropout Crisis: An Empirical Study of Key Determinants Among Secondary School Students in Jinja City, Uganda

Despite the implementation of Universal Secondary Education in Uganda, secondary school dropout rates remain alarmingly high, with over 35% of students failing to complete the education cycle particularly in urbanizing regions like Jinja City where socio-economic and institutional challenges converge (UBOS, 2020; MoES, 2021). This study investigates the complex and interrelated determinants of school dropout among secondary learners in Jinja City, focusing on socio-economic hardship, school-based factors, and gender-specific barriers such as menstruation and early pregnancy. Anchored in Bronfenbrenner’s ecological systems theory and Tinto’s student integration model, the research employed a descriptive cross-sectional design using both quantitative (n = 300) and qualitative (20 interviews) methods to explore dropout predictors. Statistical analysis using SPSS revealed that household poverty, distance to school, poor infrastructure, and gendered domestic responsibilities significantly influence dropout risk. Girls were found to be disproportionately affected, with menstruation-related absenteeism and adolescent pregnancy ranking as the leading causes. These findings, supported by thematic analysis, highlight the urgent need for intersectional, context-specific interventions such as school-based health services, community sensitization, and gender-responsive policy reforms. The study contributes localized empirical evidence to guide Uganda’s educational planning, and lays the foundation for future predictive modeling using machine learning to proactively identify at-risk students.