Multivariable short-term load forecasting in Nigerian microgrids using Bayesian regularization and bi-long short-term memory models

The increasing penetration of renewable energy sources and the variability of demand in microgrids have intensified the need for accurate short-term load forecasting (STLF). This study develops a multivariable STLF framework using the Bayesian Regularization Algorithm (BRA) and validates its performance against a Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (Bi-LSTM) network. Temperature, humidity, and feeder current were employed as input variables, while electrical load (MW) served as the output. Both models were implemented in MATLAB R2018a with a 120-minute forecasting horizon. Performance evaluation was conducted using regression analysis and statistical metrics, including Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), and the coefficient of determination (R²). The results show that the BRA model achieved superior regression accuracy (R² ≈ 0.997), demonstrating robustness and generalization under noisy conditions. By contrast, Bi-LSTM attained R² ≈ 0.991 with lower error magnitudes (MAE = 0.0293, RMSE = 0.0412), reflecting its strength in capturing sequential dependencies. A comparative review with existing literature, including confirms the competitiveness of Bi-LSTM while highlighting BRA’s resilience against noisy fluctuations typical of Nigerian microgrid environments. This study contributes to microgrid energy management by providing practical insights into selecting forecasting models, emphasizing that BRA is well-suited for noisy, small datasets, while Bi-LSTM excels in sequence-sensitive forecasting. The findings also suggest the potential for hybrid BRA–Bi-LSTM architectures to enhance forecasting accuracy in real-world microgrid applications.